NEM
28. Now le’s us scrutinize the basic features of NEM.
29. Firstly, NEW Economic Model seems to be a misnomer because it is NOT new. It is a copy cat as admitted by Dr Danny Quah (This isn’t an exam: why not copy good ideas however and wherever you find them?)
Malaysia’s new economic model: Making choices. I was told that he is one of the NEAC member and notoriously known as a staunch anti NEP bigot.
30. The model had been introduced in Chile, Argentina and Bolivia. Under the guidance (or misguidance) of the notorious Milton Friedman & the Chicago Boys, it provided the same prescription for these three Latin American countries – privatization, liberalisation, remove protection / free competition, eliminated price controls, withdraw subsidies and cut government spending / less government role.
31. The end results were socio-economic disasters – high inflation, massive unemployment, drop in wages, increase in poverty and evaporation of national assets. The locals never tasted the profits of free market but, instead, had to bear the cost of a welfare economy. Then who benefitted the most? The foreigners!
32. Secondly, this same model is transplanted in Malaysia with the same prescription – privatization, liberalisation, remove protection / free competition, eliminating price controls, withdrawing subsidies and cut government spending / less government role. Hence, if we are not careful, we could expect the same socio-economic disasters as suffered by Chile (1973), Argentina (1976) and Bolivia (1985).
33. Who would be the major beneficiaries? The rich and powerful locals and foreigners!
34. Those frightening ‘and scary as hell’ results were well documented in the books I mentioned earlier.
35. Based on the said prescription, therefore, one can safely conclude that NEM (together with its NKEAs) is systematically pre-planned to strengthen the rich and destroy the weak and poor; it means destroying the Bumis because majority of the weak and poor are Bumis. Hence, there is no reason for me to change my earlier view that NEM is indeed a new tool to colonise the Bumis.
36. Thirdly and paradoxically, the NEM also strongly emphasised on so-called market-led economy / market friendly. It is a paradox because it romantically embraced ‘the market’ at a time when even the greatest free marketeer (USA) is turning to the other direction or is distancing itself by introducing more regulations, becoming more protectionist and the government is playing a more active role in managing the economy.
37. Germany was registering a respectable economic performance under the current hostile environment by having high technologies, high wages and more REGULATIONS; it unambiguously means lesser ‘market’ roles!
38. Is Idris Jala aware of this emerging landscape? Anyway, does anyone, including Idris Jala, really know what ‘the market’ is?
39. It is high time that NEAC defines what or who is this ‘market’ animal? To the best of my knowledge, it’s faceless, has no ideology, has no loyalty and has little clue about itself (themselves). That is why, according to Dani Rodrik, steering the economy by the dictates of market confidence is a fool’s errand.
40. Policy makers, including Idris Jala, need to articulate coherent, consistent and credible accounts of what they are doing are indeed based on both good economics and good politics. They have to say: “we are doing this not because the markets demand it, but because it is good for us and here is why.”
41. That was what Tun Dr M exactly did during the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis. He did not listen to IMF, World Bank or George Soros if they were indeed ‘the markets’.
42. If still not fully convinced, Idris must learn from China’s economic policy. According to one China’s high ranking officer, “in China we make the market economy to serve the people and the State, not the market”!
43. Accordingly, DSN should immediately realise that if the present crisis gets worse, it will be HIM and other political leaders that bear primary responsibility – not because he / they ignored the markets, but because he / they took them too seriously, again as cautioned by Dani Rodrik.
44. One should also pay attention to the findings of Stephen Haggard and Naomi Klien. According to the former, market-oriented policies were not implemented well in democracies. The latter pointed it out that not a single multi-party democracy fully embraced free market policies. Logically, therefore, if they had failed in a racially homogeneous country, who then can guarantee that pro-market NEM will succeed in a multi-party and multi-racial democracy like Malaysia?
Comments on outputs
45. Now let me briefly comment some of those publicised outputs. More comments can be found in many places such as here.
46. Equal opportunities / free competition – the ideals of equal opportunities, free competition and meritocracy should be supported in a globalised world. However, to be fair to all parties, these ideals must be pursued only in an ideal environment – a level playing field. Unfortunately, as recognized by many, if not all, our playing is yet to be levelled.
47. Hence if these ideals are pursued vigorously and brutally, not mindful of the glaring socio-economic imbalances, it means Idris Jala is promoting the law of the jungle and the government endorsed it. Equal opportunities in unequal environment will breed greater inequality; ipso facto, the collapse of inclusiveness and the NEM!
48. Simultaneously, unintentionally and unfortunately, we would be courting British Disease.
49. Please remember, even TS Yeoh, DS Fernandes and TS Vincent Tan and many others did beg for government’s assistance, protection and incentives. So it is highly appreciated that if these so-called successful businessmen can immediately stop from being hypocrites as well as be truthful and honest to themselves! Please realise that not all the rakyat are naive.
50. Less government role / Privatization / GLCs sell-off – Firstly, who will be the potential buyers / beneficiaries? The richest and most powerful. Who are they? The foreigners and non-Bumis. History of Tongkah Holdings, Pantai Holdings, Chile, Argentina and Bolivia will be repeating. National treasures, including government lands, will evaporate!
51. Secondly, how does the government ensure that privatization does not produce negative impact on public interest and welfare of the rakyat? Please refer to government’s commitment written on stone on page 94 of 10th MP.
52. Thirdly, how does the NEM / government reconcile with the objective of narrowing the income gap (Gini Coefficient), from 0.441 (2009) to 0.420 by 2020 as written on stone on page 153 of 10th MP? Since the country’s treasures will be exclusively expropriated by the rich while the poor may only benefit from purported increase in wages, the obvious resultant impact will unambiguously be widening income gap as happened in the three Latin American countries.
53. Inequality is also widening in Singapore, USA, etc!
54. 6% annual growth rate and tripling of the GNI – it is expected that the opposition politicians would be laughing at these forecasts and the government politicians would normally laud them. What is required for the purpose of ‘buy-in’, Idris Jala must provide the detailed assumptions and calculations, including the input-output ratios, multiplier effects, etc that were factored in into these forecasts. Until then one has to gentlemanly reserve further comments.
55. Doubling of GNI per capita from RM23,700 per year ( or RM1,975 per month) in 2009 to RM48,000 per year (or RM4,000 per month) by 2020 – this effort must be supported. However, notwithstanding what is mentioned in the previous paragraph, the rakyat must be appropriately informed about the true meaning of GNI per capita. Please do not exploit their ignorance.
56. GNI per capita is the total amount of annual goods and services in value added terms produced by companies, NGOs, households, etc and divided by the total population. It has nothing to do with personal income but, unfortunately, please be aware that the majority thought that it is as if their personal income.
57. When GNI per capita increased, they thought their personal income will also automatically increase. So naturally, and ignorantly, many are happy. Unfortunately, there is no direct correlation or one-to-one relationship between GNI per capita and personal or household income. Hence, some are sceptical and cynical.
58. They are sceptical and cynical because their personal income is very much below the 2009 monthly GNI per capita income level of RM1,975. The average monthly household income then was only RM4,025 or roughly RM1,006 on per capita basis, that is, only half of the former. Hence they wonder how their monthly household income could quadruple to RM16,000 or RM4,000 a month on per capita basis by 2020! That explains the scepticism and cynicism.
59. Identified 131 EPPs and 60 business opportunities – according to the briefings, these projects / opportunities will spearhead the much needed growth (73% of targeted GNI of US$523 billion by 2020). IF the assumptions are reasonable, IF the calculations are correct, IF the announcements are true and IF there is no hanky panky, the programmes will generate the anticipated growth. However, doubts have already been raised, for example, in the case of constructing MRT in Klang Valley and the critical issue of supply and demand of floor spaces.
60. Additionally, these programmes are largely urban- and rich-biased. Only 25 projects or 19% are rural-based. Hence, from socio-economic engineering point of view, they are not specifically targeted to seriously help the rural / the poor. As such, the worry about C. Elliot’s Confidence Mechanism paradigm is valid. If indeed the reasonable worry does materialise, the rich will become richer and the poor will become poorer!
61. Total investments were valued at US$444 billion; 92% from the private sector and only 8% from the government – firstly, admittedly, Idris Jala was not bluffing but he was not telling the whole truth either. He failed to inform us during the briefing that, out of that 92%, 32% will be borne by the GLCs. It means, invariably, total government’s fund would be 40% (8% + 32%), excluding potential guarantees. The private sector’s fund would be much lesser – only 60%!
62. Secondly, Idris must convince the rakyat that he can almost triple the private investment to the tune of US410 billion (RM1.27 trillion) by 2020 against a background of RM535 billion private investment during the last 10 years and the current hostile global environment.
63. Thirdly, if it is true that government investment would only be 8%, it means during the 10 year period, only US$35.5 billion of government / rakyat’s money / asset will be used for investment. My immediate question is, are the government lands identified for development / redevelopment in Sg Besi, Chochrane, Sg. Buluh, Bangsar, MATRADE, etc that dirt cheap? In the name of transparency, Idris Jala must declare the total land areas involved and the calculated / estimated value of per sq foot of these parcels of precious land. Unsangkarable!
64. 3.3 million jobs will be created by 2020 – the rakyat should be happy to hear this piece of optimistic forecast. It not only means a guarantee of full employment but, at the same time, demand (3.3 million jobs) will exceed supply (increase in working age population = 2.7 million) during the same period and 60% of those jobs are in high paying bracket.
65. Since 75% of Malaysian workforces are wage earners therefore the most logical step to increase income is to create high income jobs where the Rakyat will benefit from a competitive economy and, hence, will enjoy a better way of life. This is the raison d’etre of the NEM.
66. Higher wages can be induced through (a) maximising capital (b) greater productivity through the use of skills and innovation, improved coordination, stronger branding and compliance with international standards and Intellectual Property Rights (c) investment in new technology, multi skills, innovation and creativity, and (d) increased competency. These are the drivers of public and private sector performance.
67. However, there are a few nagging questions need to be promptly addressed. Firstly, will the private sector stop from being hypocrites and has the will to pay high wages immediately?
68. Secondly, will there be a perfect match between supply and demand? If not, how fast the locals can be trained and benefitted from these NKEAs. If it is not that easy and not that fast, the imported foreign talent will get the lion share and the poor households at the bottom 40% will be at a gross disadvantage – getting the low paid jobs. Mindful of what was mentioned earlier (paras 47, 52 & 60), the income inequality will be exacerbated.
69. Thirdly, only 320,000 jobs or 9.7% will be created in the rural areas; hence further strengthening the perception of the government’s continued urban-biased approach.
Conclusion
70. I wish to repeat that if NEM /NKEAs are retained in their present spirit, form and substance, one cannot escape from concluding that it is camouflaged behind a smokescreen of excessive sophistication and esoteric concepts with the attendant policies / programmes which will subjugate the poor who are largely Malays / Bumis. The highly probable outcome is analogous to the result of a surgical operation: the operation (NEM / NKEAs) succeeded but the patient (Malays / Bumis) died! QED.
Hidup Tuah! 
#1 by Kenn on September 24, 2010 - 10:20 pm
Orang Melayu bukan musuh DS Najib. Musuh sebenar adalah mereka-mereka yang berkomplot untuk menjatuhkan DS Najib sendiri serta kerajaan dan mereka-mereka yang menyalak diluar batasan prinsip Rukun Negara dan Perlembagaan.
Justeru itu, DS Najib wajar ikhlas denga segala luahan orang Melayu terhadap MEBnya.
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#2 by Mayday on September 27, 2010 - 7:18 am
Good socioeconomic analysis. I agree there is no direct correlation between GNI per capita and actual household income. One must not think if GNI per capita increase his actual income will also increase.
One good genuine example: One of my friend told me “With his income of RM1,800 a month 15 years ago, he was able to buy a nice single story house priced at RM55,000 per unit and take care 3 children. Now he feel is very sad because even tough he son earn RM3,000 a month and yet still can’t effort to maintain a family with 2 children and can’t effort to buy a same type of house which already cost RM130,000. The only option his son has either to become stingan or look for low cost flat or get out of Klang velly.
This is the potential scenario of the faith of 60% of our population in 2020 if free market policy continue to be practiced. Who represent this 60%……..
Mayday
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#3 by Keturunan Jebat on September 27, 2010 - 11:57 am
Bro Tuah,
This subject has been discussed at Outsyed The Box Blog. NEM is systematically enslaving the Bumi under the ruling elite which is under the NWO Colonial Masters. Very very few are aware that their personal sovereignty and dignity are being chipped away through enslavement of the economic and monetary policy which is being dictated by the Power That Be.
It might sound like a sinister conspiracy theory. It is not. One has to look at all available information which unfortunately not many people do, to realise there is a pattern to the man made events and again unfortunately not many amongst has the awareness to detect and analyse. This could be due to complacency, denial or short term thinking of survival.
As I commented at Tn Syed’s Blog……I cry for my Malaysia and for my children and their future generation.
Keturunan Jebat
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#4 by Mayday on October 2, 2010 - 7:12 am
DATUK ….HARAP IZINKAN SAYA TUMPANG MEMAPARKAN SEMULA APA YANG DTULIS OLEH KELAB ANTI-PKR UNTUK RENUNGAN UMAT MELAYU DI NEGARA INI:
Anti-PKR Club’s Photos – Wall Photos
Photo 2110 of 2116 Back to Album · Anti-PKR Club’s Photos · Anti-PKR Club’s Profile
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Click on people’s faces in the photo to tag them.
Peringatan pada semua rakyat Malaysia!!! Realiti Di Singapura (Dan Malaysia Jika DAP Memerintah)
Ini realiti di Singapura sekarang (Kiblat DAP)
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ISA Dilaksanakan Begitu Keras Dengan Tahanan Paling Lama Cecah 23 Tahun (Chia Thye Poh-tahanan politik). Kebanyakkan yang masuk ISA ialah aktivis politik, pemimpin kesatuan dan pelajar.
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Badan Kehakiman Dikawal Kerajaan
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Kesatuan Pekerja Kebangsaan dipengerusikan Menteri Kabinet Singapura (tidak bebas).
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Semua Stesen TV Dan Suratkhabar Adalah Milik Kerajaan
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Pihak Yang Cuba Bantah Kerajaan PAP Akan DiSaman Sampai Bankrap Dan Tidak Ada Mana Hakim Yang Berani Buat Keputusan Menentang Kerajaan.
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Rakyat Diberikan Saham Yang Boleh Ditukar Dengan Wang Tunai Sehari Sebelum Pilihanraya Umum 2001 (rasuah)
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Penduduk di Kawasan Perumahan Yang Tidak Menyokong Kerajaan, Tidak Akan Mendapat Khidmat Penyelenggaraan yang Sempurna pada PRU 1997 (ugutan)
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Kaum Melayu tidak dibenarkan berkhidmat sebagai juruterbang dan Komando Angkatan Tentera.
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Hanya ada seorang saja Jeneral India Muslim yang berkhidmat dengan SAF, yang lain semua cina.
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Pemilikkan rumah orang melayu di Bedok dan Geylang dikawal dan dihadkan oleh Housing and Development Board (HDB) untuk menyekat pengembangan orang melayu dan digantikan dengan orang cina yang dibawa masuk dari Negara China ( ethnic residential quotas 1989)
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Diskriminasi kaum dalam bidang pekerjaan dengan kebanyakkan syarikat meletakkan syarat fasih berbahasa Mandarin dan mengutamakan pekerja asing (gaji murah) daripada bangsa Minoriti Singapura. Ada sesetengah kes bilamana calon kaum minoriti berjaya membuktikan kefasihan bercakap dalam bahasa Mandarin, mereka akan diminta menulis dalam bahasa cina pula.
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Kebanyakkan pemilik rumah (cina) tidak membenarkan orang india menyewa rumah mereka.
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Kerajaan Singapura memberi biasiswa sebanyak S$500 sebulan kepada kanak-kanak dari Tanah Besar China (terutama Hunan dan Hubei) untuk belajar di Singapore. Keistimewaan sama tidak diberi kepada kanak-kanak dari Malaysia mahuoun India
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Bahasa kebangsaan Singapura pada 1965 ialah bahasa Melayu tetapi telah ditambah kepada bahasa-bahasa lain berikutan penurunan populasi melayu.
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Racial Harmony Day dirayakan setiap 21hb July tiap tiap tahun bagi memperingati rusuhan kaum yang berlaku pada 1964 yang berlaku antara etnik cina dan melayu. Rusuhan kaum ini adalah antara punca kenapa Singapura dikeluarkan dari Persekutuan Malaysia 1965 bila ia dijadikan alasan oleh LKY untuk menuntut hak kesemarataan dari Tunku untuk semua rakyat dalam Persekutuan Malaysia.
Jadi, jika anda ingin memangkah DAP dalam pilihanraya umum akan datang, ingatlah apa yang sedang berlaku di Singapura sekarang akan turut berlaku di Malaysia. Hari ini sebagai pembangkang, mereka boleh cakap pasal apa sahaja termasuk penghapusan ISA dan soal kesamarataan tetapi percayalah, apabila mereka berkuasa, mereka akan memperkenalkan dasar-dasar yang menindas orang melayu seterusnya membangkitkan tindak balas orang melayu dan ketika itulah mereka akan memperkenalkan ISA semula atas alasan keselamatan negara.
Di Singapura, LKY juga bercakap mengenai kesamarataan tapi hakikatnya tidak ada yang samarata sebaliknya diskirminasi yang nyata.
Mungkin kalau ada pun yang PAP boleh belajar daripada DAP ialah bagaimana nak menggunakan duit judi lumba kuda untuk jadi sumbangan kepada fakir miskin, nak nak yang beragama Islam…..hehehe..
sumber: Mr. Google/Mykmu.net
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#5 by paspros on October 2, 2010 - 1:37 pm
Dalam kerancakan kita melaksanakan ETP RMK10 mencapai negara maju dan sebagainya minta PM tengok juga apa yg majlis bandaran atau pun majlis-majlis daerah seluruh negara sedang buat. dalam semangat 1 malaysia kita kena pastikan projek-projek bandar baru, taman-taman perumahan, kondo, premis perniagan dan pembangunan tanah dirancang dan dilaksanakan secara holistik agar mana-mana kaum tidak ketinggalan dalam pemilikan harta dan peluang ekonomi. kalau ada mana-mana kaum belum bersedia merebut peluang dari projek-projek yg diluluskan dan dibangunkan oleh majlis2 perbandaran atau majlis daerah, kerajaan perlu tangguh dulu walau pun ia mungkin menerima bantahan. ini adalah tanggungjawab kerajaan. jangan terlalu ikut agenda mereka yg hanya melihat dari sudut keuntungan sahaja. kerajaan perlu bertindak segera kerana fenomina ketidakadilan ini sedang merebak di seluruh negara. kalau tidak dibendung corak demografi akan berubah yg menjejaskan masa depan politik negara.
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#6 by OnDaStreet on October 3, 2010 - 3:33 pm
Salam Tuah,
“The highly probable outcome is analogous to the result of a surgical operation: the operation (NEM / NKEAs) succeeded but the patient (Malays / Bumis) died!”
What an ending to a two-part analytical review on NEM…
However, yes, so far, althugh being reiterated by DS Najib and TS Muhyiddin, NEM is not that clear on how bumiputeras’ development is ensured.
~ OnDaStreet
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#7 by sputjam on November 25, 2010 - 12:36 pm
Nowadays, you can see riots and demos all over europe. They are doing these due to cut in govenrment spending. Jobs in the civil service, welfare and allowances have not been spared.
Reason for the cuts is to slash the debt burden the govenrment is carrying.
In Malaysia it is no surprise many bumiputas are reluctant to part with their grants, scholarships, gurantted jobs in govenrment sectors and otehr welfare benefits.
It is very difficult to remove the benefits once it have been implemented. But if there is no restructuring, the inefficiency will be carried on to the next generation to solve.
The cost to the country by allowing Bumi only businesses to obtain govenrment contracts is probably 20-30% extra cost if other businesses are allowed to participate.
What Najib and the NEM is trying to promote, is reduce dependent of bumiputras on the govenrment and hoping bumi businesses will be able to garner some of the private sector jobs/contracts proposed. Reason is because there will be less govenrment contracts/jobs due to cut in spending.
If the bumis insist that they need more welfare benefits as they are poor, then please vote for CPM in the next election. They will know how to handle the rich and capitalist and nationalise all businesses and properties to be distributed evenly. Only after this, can we implement meritocracy that is fair and square for all and nobody should have a reason to complain.
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