Posts Tagged Bank Negara Malaysia

ULASAN RINGKAS KE ATAS HIS & HES 2016

Penemuan Utama Statistik Pendapatan Dan Perbelanjaan Isirumah 2016

1. Saya baca press release berkenaan  dan membuat quick observations / calculations melalui hp. Sakit mata.

2. Beberapa perkara yg menarik perhatian saya, selain drp apa yg telah dilaporkan itu:

2.1. Purata pendapatan bulanan isi rumah (PPBIR) 2016:

MY = RM6953
MK = RM6848 (No. 6 tertinggi)

2.2. Kedua2 naik 6.2% banding 2014 (CAGR).👍🏼

2.3. Purata Perbelanjaan bulanan isi rumah (PEBIR) 2016:

MY = RM4,033
MK = RM4374 (No. 4 tertinggi).

2.4. MY naik 6.0%; MK naik 6.9%.

2.5. Purata Simpanan sebulan (2.1 – 2.3):

MY = RM2925
MK = RM2474

2.6. Orang Msia ada menyimpan tetapi simpanan orang Melaka is below national average. Perlu juga teliti golongan mana yg menyimpan: T20, M40 atau B40? Policy implications?

2.7. PPBIR semua kaum naik (2014/2016):👍🏼

C = RM7666/RM8750
I = RM6011/RM7150
B = RM5548/RM6267

Bumi kekal no. 3!

2.8. Jurang antara B:BB semakin melebar:

2014 = RM2116
2016 = RM2483

Policy implications?

2.9. Income share (2014/2016):

T20 = 46.1%/46.2%
M40 = 37.1%/37.4%
B40 = 16.8%/16.4%

2.10. Jelas sekali:

2.10.1 orang kaya (T20) terus merangkul syer pendapatan lbh 2 kali ganda (46.2%) dari proportion nya (20%) & terus bertambah.

2.10.2 Syer pendapatan orang miskin (B40) tak sampai pun separuh (16.4%) drp propotion nya dan terus merosot pulak. Hence the famous cliche “YANG KAYA BERTAMBAH KAYA, YANG MISKIN BERTAMBAH MISKIN”.

2.11. Ia mengesahkan unjuran saya pd 29 Mei 2010 dlm Kongress Ekonomi Bumiputera.

https://darahtuah.wordpress.com/2016/01/08/jurang-pendapatan-tambah-melebar-selepas-2009/

2.12. Policy implications?

3. Kajian lebih mendalam dari pelbagai sudut boleh/patut dibuat. Kedua2 HIS & HES  ini kaya dengan maklumat. Contohnya ada juga maklumat tentang penggunaan internet. Seramai 71% orang Msia yang berumur 15 tahun & ke atas telah menggunakan internet… maklumat di hujung jari. Ada bearing ke atas PRU 14 nanti😃

Wallahu’alam.

DAA
10 Okt 2017.

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THE CURRENT STATE OF OUR ECONOMY

http://www.themalaysianinsight.com/s/17745/

The original World Bank Report doesn’t seem to give that very bleak economic landscape.

According to latest indicators, Msian continued economic expansion is forecasted to sail thru till early next year.

https://twitter.com/Akbar_Ali/status/911127694208729088

But GDP growth is not the only goal & the panacea. One has to be circumspect about the total scenario.

Recollect what I wrote before (below)?:👇🏽

State of our economy:

1. I stand for a BALANCED reporting. More credible, trustworthy & respectable.

2. Our economy is NEITHER  as rosy as the govt is trying hard to portray NOR as bad as the opposition is cruelly  trying to make us believe. Innocent readers are then trapped by the two antagonists.

3. It’s a MIXED output/outcome.

CAPITAL ECONOMY

4. +VE

a. Stronger growth (4.2%) tho still below RMK11 target (5.8%)

b. RM is appreciating (RM4.28) tho still weaker then the RM3.80 threshold

c. Increased FDI

d. Continued trade surplus (235 consecutive months)

5. -VE

a. Declining productivity, from 2.8% to 1.2%

b. Shrinking competitiveness, dropped fr 18th to 25th position

c. Low wage labour intensive economy (50% below monthly wage RM1,700)

d. Mismatched labour market supply & demand

PEOPLE’S ECONOMY

6. +VE

a. Continued low unemployment rate (21 consecutive years)

b. Low poverty rate (0.6%)

c. Increased HH income

d. Narrowing intra group inequalities

7. -VE

a. Rising unemployed… 28% increase bet 2014 & 2016… now +500k (about 2m voters) + Large under employed = 500k (about 2m voters)

b. Huge HH debt … close to 90% of GDP

c. High cost of living

d. Widening inter groupinequalities.

Many more eg moderate inflation, huge govt debt, wastages/leakages/corruption etc.

DAA
29 July 2017.

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RCI on FOREX

Must look into these 4 areas first:

1. Relevant Rules & regulations enforced during that material period.

2. Governance during that material period.

3. Who was/were vested with the authorities to conduct the trading?

4. National interest or pecuniary advantage?

Based on the above, the possibilities are as under:

1. Recommend criminal investigation

2. Recommend tighter housekeeping & internal surveillance.

3. NFA

It looks like it would be no. 2 + NFA or its equivalence.

Wallahu’alam

DAA
28 June 2017.

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